Lorenz Kueng

Senior Assistant Professor of Economics

Università della Svizzera italiana (USI) and
Swiss Finance Institute Professor (SFI)
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6900 Lugano TI, Switzerland
Email: lorenz.kueng at usi.ch
Phone: +41 (0)58 666 4638
Fax: +1 510 255 5013

Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management
Assistant Professor of Finance (on leave)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Faculty Research Fellow, Public Economics program

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Research Affiliate, Public Economics programme

Research interests
Household Finance, Public Finance,
Macroeconomic Implications of Consumer Behavior

USI bio
Curriculum vitae
Google Scholar Page

Published and Forthcoming

5. Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 133 (2018): 1693-1751. First version, entitled Explaining Consumption Excess Sensitivity with Near-Rationality: Evidence from Large Predetermined Payments: July 2015.
[Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Public Version], [Code and Data], [Media Coverage].

Companion paper to [5]:
5b. Revisiting the Response of Household Spending to the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend using CE Data, July 2015.
[Abstract], [Code and Data].

4. Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy? (with Scott Baker, Leslie McGranahan, and Brian Melzer), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 33, no. 1 (2019): 1-44. First version: July 2018.
[Abstract], [Slides], [Public Version], [Media Coverage].

3. Complementarity of Performance Pay and Task Allocation (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), forthcoming in Management Science. First version: January 2015.
[Abstract], [Online Appendix], [Public Version].

2. Propagation and Risk Spreading in Alternative Social Security Systems (with Alan Auerbach, Ronald Lee, and Yury Yatsynovich), Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 164 (2018): 91-105. First version: April 2011.
[Abstract], [Public Version], [Non-Technical Version], [Code], [Old Fortran77 Code].

1. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality (with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and John Silvia), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 88 (2017): 70-89. First version: May 2012.
[Abstract], [Public Version], [Code and Data], [Media Coverage].

Working Papers

7. Measurement Error in Imputed Consumption (with Scott Baker, Steffen Meyer, and Michaela Pagel), September 2018, revise and resubmit at the Review of Financial Studies.
[Abstract], [Slides].

6. Income Fluctuations and Firm Choice (with Brian Baugh and Scott Baker), March 2018, revise and resubmit at the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
[Abstract], [Slides].

5. Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates (with Scott Baker and Stephanie Johnson), September 2018, revise and resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
[Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Media Coverage].

4. The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality (with Evgeny Yakovlev), May 2019, 2nd round revise and resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
[Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Media Coverage].

3. Tax News Shocks and Consumption, August 2018.
[Abstract], [Old Slides], [Online Appendix], [NBER executive summary], [Movie].

Note: This video shows the evolution of the path of market-based expected tax rates from the beginning of the Carter administration in January 1977 through the first year of the Reagan administration. With a forecast horizon of 1 to 15 years, the movie shows when markets begin to anticipate the Reagan tax cuts, and how persistent they expect these tax shocks to be. The paths of expected tax rates are calculated from the term structure of yield spreads between Treasury and municipal bonds between 1/1977 and 8/1982. The time series of the actual effective top 1% tax rate (i.e., the perfect foresight tax rate) is based on Saez (2004). [Note: If you cannot see the movie you can download the file here.]

Companion paper to [3]:
3b. The Taxation of Bonds: A Short Primer, October 2011.

2. The Impact of Emerging Market Competition on Innovation and Business Strategy (with Nick Li and Mu-Jeung Yang), November 2016, submitted.
[Abstract], [Media Coverage].

1. Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Size vs. Age Effects (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), January 2017.

Work in Progress

- The Riskiness of Owning vs. Renting Housing (with Scott Baker, Lee Lockwood and Pinchuan Ong).

- Undiversified Real Estate Investors and Endogenous House Prices (with Charles Nathanson)

- Deleveraging and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Account-Level Data (with Scott Baker, Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman)

Other Writings

- The Note Issue Paradox: Free Banking in Switzerland 1872-1881, March 2007. (This was my 1st-year economic history paper in graduate school. Brad DeLong thought it was worth publishing so I am making it public here.)

- The Impact of Immigration on Swiss Wages: A Fixed Effects Two Stage Least Squares Analysis, February 2005. (This was a term paper in my last year of undergraduate studies. It still gets some citations so I am posting it here for reference.)

- Evaluation wirtschaftspolitischer Programme, May 2005. (English title: Evaluation of Regional Economic Promotion Policies; this was my Master's thesis.)


- Discussion of Nicole Branger, Linda Larsen, and Claus Munk, "Hedging Recessions," Midwest Finance Association (MFA) Annual Meeting, Chicago IL, March 2019.

- Discussion of Michael Gelman, "The Self-Constrained Hand-to-Mouth," American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Atlanta GA, January 2019.

- Discussion of Jeehoon Han, Bruce Meyer, and James Sullivan, "Inequality in the Joint Distribution of Consumption and Time Use," National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), London UK, June 2018.

- Discussion of Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu, "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia PA, January 2018.

- Discussion of Deniz Aydin, "The Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Credit: Evidence from Random Assignment of 54,522 Credit Lines," The Society for Financial Studies (SFS) Finance Cavalcade Conference, Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN, May 2017.

- Discussion of Tania Babina, Chotibhak Jotikasthira, Christian Lundblad and Tarun Ramadorai, "Heterogenous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds," American Finance Association (AFA) Annual Meeting, San Francisco CA, January 2016.

- Discussion of Karel Mertens, "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," CIREQ Macroeconomics Conference, Montreal Canada, April 2014.