H 1. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. [Abstract], [Code and Data], [Media Coverage], [Public Version] (with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and John Silvia), Journal of Monetary Economics (2017), (first version: May 2012).
ABSTRACT: We study the effects of monetary policy shocks on - and their historical contribution to - consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980 as measured by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Contractionary monetary policy systematically increases inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document some of the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
H 5. Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates [Abstract], (with Scott Baker).
ABSTRACT: Households cut spending similarly on both taxable and tax-exempt goods in the face of increases in sales tax rates. We demonstrate that this seemingly irrational behavior is the rational response in the presence of shopping complementarities across storable goods, and that heterogeneity in these complementarities predicts shopping behavior. Moreover, households also respond across a number of other dimensions: Households increase online shopping, shift shopping trips to neighboring tax jurisdictions and stock up on storable goods before the increase takes place. While salience of tax changes is high on average, local salience of upcoming sales tax changes also elicits larger responses.
H 4. Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia [Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Media Coverage], (with Evgeny Yakovlev), Working Paper, May 2016 (first version: July 2014). This paper previously circulated with the title "How Persistent are Consumption Habits? Micro-Evidence from Russia." (submitted)
ABSTRACT: We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how public policies affect important long-run outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares decades after the interventions ended explain about 60% of the recent decrease in male mortality based on both micro-level and aggregate estimates. Mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years based on our analysis. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.
H 3. Explaining Consumption Excess Sensitivity with Near-Rationality: Evidence from Large Predetermined Payments [Abstract], [Slides], [Media Coverage], Working Paper, August 2016 (first version: July 2015). (R&R at the Quarterly Journal of Economics)
ABSTRACT: Using new transaction data I show that consumption is excessively sensitive to salient, predetermined, large and regular payments from the Alaska Permanent Fund, with a large average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 30% for nondurables and services. This deviation from the standard inter-temporal consumption model is concentrated among households for whom the loss from failing to smooth consumption is small in terms of equivalent variation. In particular, the MPC is increasing in household income but decreasing in the size of the loss. As a result, statistically significant excess sensitivity in response to these large payments is consistent with households following near-rational alternative consumption plans. For macroeconomic policies, such as an economic stimulus program, these near-rational alternatives might represent the more relevant behavior than the standard consumption model.
Companion papers to [H 3]:
H 3b. Revisiting the Response of Household Spending to the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend using CE Data [Abstract], [Code and Data], Working Paper, July 2015.
ABSTRACT: This paper revisits the important contribution of Hsieh (2003) to the analysis of the intertemporal allocation of household consumption. Using total expenditures to normalize income from the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend instead of family income and an extended sample of the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE), I show that log household spending on nondurables is excessively sensitive to the arrival of this predetermined cash flow, with a statistically significant elasticity between 11% and 16%. The previously estimated non-response can largely be attributed to attenuation bias introduced by substantial measurement error in self-reported before-tax family income, in particular over-reporting of very small values.
H 3c. Expected Permanent Fund Dividends: New Measures Based on a Narrative Analysis and Archival Data [Abstract], [Code and Data], Working Paper, July 2015.
ABSTRACT: This paper derives two measures of expected Alaska Permanent Fund Dividends (PFD), which are large annual payments to most Alaskan residents. The first measure is based on a narrative analysis of all major Alaskan newspapers from 1982 to 2014. The second is derived from new data from 1991 to 2014 of the Permanent Fund's income from assets, which largely determines the size of the annual dividend per person. Additional information about the PFD is provided that will help those who plan to use this quasi-natural experiment for future research.
H 2. Propagation and Risk Spreading in Alternative Social Security Systems [Abstract], [Non-Technical Version], [Code], [Old Fortran77 Code], (with Alan Auerbach, Ronald Lee, and Yury Yatsynovich), Working Paper, October 2016 (first version: April 2011). (R&R at the Journal of Public Economics)
ABSTRACT: Even with well-developed capital markets, there is no private market mechanism for trading between current and future generations, so a potential role for public old-age pension systems is to spread economic and demographic shocks among different generations. This paper evaluates the smoothing and propagation of shocks of five public pension schemes, based on the actual U.S., German and Swedish systems, which vary in the extent to which they rely on tax or benefit adjustments, and a trust fund buffer. Modifying the Auerbach-Kotlikoff (1987) dynamic general-equilibrium overlapping generations model to incorporate realistic patterns of fertility and mortality and shocks to productivity, fertility and mortality, we evaluate the effectiveness of these public pension systems at spreading the effects of such shocks, as well as shocks to migration. Our results suggest that system design, the source of shocks, and characteristics of preferences and technology are important factors in determining the potential of public pension arrangements to spread the burden of shocks.
H 1. Tax News: The Response of Household Spending to Changes in Expected Taxes [Abstract], [Old Slides], [Online Appendix], [NBER executive summary], [Movie], Working Paper, August 2016 (first version: November 2011). (submitted)
ABSTRACT: Although theoretical models of household behavior often emphasize fiscal foresight, empirical studies of household consumption have yet to document the role of news about tax changes. Using novel high-frequency bond data, I develop a model of the term structure of municipal yield spreads as a function of future top income tax rates and a risk premium. Testing the model using the presidential elections of 1992 and 2000 as two quasi-natural experiments shows that financial markets forecast future tax rates remarkably well in both the short and long run. Combining these market-based tax expectations with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I find that spending of higher-income households increases by close to 1% in response to news of a 1% increase in expected after-tax lifetime (permanent) income. These findings imply that by ignoring anticipation effects, previous estimates of the total effect of a tax change could be substantially biased.
Note: This video shows the evolution of the path of market-based expected tax rates from the beginning of the Carter administration in January 1977 through the first year of the Reagan administration. With a forecast horizon of 1 to 15 years, the movie shows when markets begin to anticipate the Reagan tax cuts, and how persistent they expect these tax shocks to be. The paths of expected tax rates are calculated from the term structure of yield spreads between Treasury and municipal bonds between 1/1977 and 8/1982. The time series of the actual effective top 1% tax rate (i.e., the perfect foresight tax rate) is based on Saez (2004). [Note: If you cannot see the move you can download the file here.]
Companion paper to [H 1]:
H 1b. The Taxation of Bonds: A Short Primer [Abstract], Working Paper, October 2011.
ABSTRACT: The taxation of fixed-income securities is complex, but important for understanding the pricing of bonds. This short primer explains what researchers who are interested in bond pricing should know about the taxation of fixed-income securities. The different tax rules since 1970 are formalized within a simple asset pricing framework.
F 3. The Impact of Emerging Market Competition on Innovation and Business Strategy [Abstract], [Media Coverage], (with Nick Li and Mu-Jeung Yang), Working Paper, November 2016. (submitted)
ABSTRACT: How do firms in high-income countries adjust to emerging market competition? We estimate how a representative panel of Canadian firms adjusts innovation activities, business strategies, and exit in response to large increases in Chinese imports between 1999 and 2005. On average, process innovation declines more strongly than product innovation. In addition, initially more differentiated firms that survive the increase in competition have better performance ex-post, but are ex-ante more likely to exit. Differentiation therefore does not ensure insulation against competitive shocks but instead increases risk.
F 2. Complementarity of Performance Pay and Task Allocation [Abstract], [Online Appendix], (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), Working Paper, January 2016 (first version: January 2015). This paper previously circulated with the title "Estimating Management Practice Complementarity between Decentralization and Performance Pay." (R&R at Management Science)
ABSTRACT: Complementarity between different management practices has been argued to be one potential explanation for persistent performance differences across firms. Using detailed data on internal organization for a nationally representative sample of firms, we empirically test for the existence of complementary joint adoption of performance pay incentives and decentralization of decision-making authority for tasks. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit regional variation in income tax progressivity as an instrument for the adoption of performance pay. We find systematic evidence of complementarity between performance pay and decentralization of decision-making from principals to employees. However, adopting performance pay also leads to centralization of decision-making authority from non-managerial to managerial employees. The findings suggest that performance pay adoption leads to a concentration of decision-making control at the managerial employee level, as opposed to a general movement towards more decentralization throughout the organization.
F 1. Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Size vs. Age Effects [Abstract], (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), Working Paper, January 2017 (first version: July 2014). (submitted)
ABSTRACT: What determines the life-cycle of businesses? Exploiting unique firm-level panel data on internal organization and innovation we establish three key sets of stylized facts to inform recent theories of firm life-cycles. First, life-cycle effects are driven by startups, not by new establishments of existing firms. Second, organizational restructuring and innovation are both strongly correlated with firm growth but not with firm age, in contrast to passive learning theories of firm dynamics. Third, there are important sectoral differences in innovation activities which are monotonically increasing in firm size for manufacturing firms but hump-shaped for firms in service industries.
- Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Sales Tax Changes and Retailer-Customer Linked Panel Data [Abstract] (with Stephanie Johnson and Scott Baker).
ABSTRACT: We study the behavior of retailers to exogenous changes in sales taxes and wholesale prices using scanner panel data that links customers to retailers.
- Household Borrowing Response to Large Anticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund (with Andreas Fuster and Brian Melzer).
- The Note Issue Paradox: Free Banking in Switzerland 1872-1881 [Abstract], Working Paper, March 2007. (This was my 1st-year economic history paper in graduate school. Brad DeLong thought it was worth publishing so I am making it public here.)
ABSTRACT: This paper uses the unique institutional setting of Swiss cantons from 1872 to 1881 to study the note-issuing behavior of private banks in a free banking system. I find that these banks over-issue notes, in contrast to recent literature on free banking in the United States in the 19th century such Bodenhorn and Haupert (1996). This new conclusion results from measuring two additional determinants of note-issuing that have previously been ignored: the average withdrawals from deposit accounts, and the interest rate paid on those deposit accounts. Controlling for these two variables reveals that the expected return on note-issuing exceeds the returns on deposit creation. Therefore, banks issued too many notes, failing to take into account the negative externality imposed on other issuing banks by the increased transaction costs that result from the larger flow of species and by the effect on the exchange rate volatility.
- The Impact of Immigration on Swiss Wages: A Fixed Effects Two Stage Least Squares Analysis [Abstract], Working Paper, February 2005. (This was a term paper in my last year of undergraduate studies. It still gets some citations so I am posting it here for reference.)
ABSTRACT: This paper studies how immigration from 1993 to 2000 affected the Swiss labor market.
- Evaluation wirtschaftspolitischer Programme
(English title: Evaluation of Regional Economic Promotion Policies), May 2005. (This was my Master's thesis.)