Lorenz Kueng

Associate Professor of Economics
Swiss Finance Institute and USI Lugano
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Università della Svizzera italiana (USI)
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6900 Lugano TI, Switzerland

Email: lorenz.kueng at gmail.com
Phone: +41 (0)58 666 4638
Fax: +41 (0)58 666 4733

Twitter: @LorenzKueng
Mastodon: @LorenzKueng@econtwitter.net
ORCID: 0000-0002-2743-922X
SSRN: Author ID 1853000

Research interests
Household Finance, Public Economics,
Macroeconomic Implications of Consumer Behavior

Curriculum vitae
Google Scholar Page
SFI bio, USI bio

Published and Forthcoming

12. Financial Returns to Household Inventory Management (with Scott Baker and Stephanie Johnson), Journal of Financial Economics, conditionally accepted. First version: August 2020. [Abstract], [Slides], [Public Version].

11. Household Financial Transaction Data (with Scott Baker), Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 14, no. 1 (August 2022): 47-67. [Abstract], [NBER Working Paper].

10. Consumption Imputation Errors in Administrative Data (with Scott Baker, Steffen Meyer, and Michaela Pagel), Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 35, no. 6 (June 2022): 3021-3059. First version, entitled Measurement Error in Imputed Consumption: May 2018. [Abstract], [Slides], [Public Version].

9. Income Fluctuations and Firm Choice (with Scott Baker and Brian Baugh), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 56, no. 6 (September 2021): 2208-2236. First version, entitled The Elasticity of Household Retailer Choice: July 2015. [Abstract], [Slides], [Public Version].

8. Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates (with Scott Baker and Stephanie Johnson), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 13, no. 3 (July 2021): 209-250. First version: August 2016. [Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Code and Data], [Public Version], [Media Coverage].

7. The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality (with Evgeny Yakovlev), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 13, no. 1 (February 2021): 1-36. First version, entitled How Persistent are Consumption Habits? Micro-Evidence from Russia: July 2014. [Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Code and Data], [Public Version], [Media Coverage].

6. The Impact of Emerging Market Competition on Innovation and Business Strategy (with Nick Li and Mu-Jeung Yang), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 181, no. 1 (January 2021): 117-134. First version: April 2016. [Abstract], [Public Version], [Media Coverage].

5. Complementarity of Performance Pay and Task Allocation (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), Management Science, Vol. 65, no. 11 (November 2019): 1693-1751. First version: January 2015. [Abstract], [Online Appendix], [Public Version].

4. Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy? (with Scott Baker, Leslie McGranahan, and Brian Melzer), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 33, no. 1 (2019): 1-44. First version: July 2018. [Abstract], [Slides], [Public Version], [Media Coverage].

3. Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 133 (November 2018): 1693-1751. First version, entitled Explaining Consumption Excess Sensitivity with Near-Rationality: Evidence from Large Predetermined Payments: July 2015. [Abstract], [Slides], [Online Appendix], [Public Version], [Code and Data], [Media Coverage].

Companion paper to [3]: 3b. Revisiting the Response of Household Spending to the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend using CE Data, July 2015. [Abstract], [Code and Data].

2. Propagation and Smoothing of Shocks in Alternative Social Security Systems (with Alan Auerbach, Ronald Lee, and Yury Yatsynovich), Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 164 (August 2018): 91-105. First version, entitled Propagation and Risk Spreading in Alternative Social Security Systems: April 2011. [Abstract], [Public Version], [Non-Technical Version], [Code], [Old Fortran77 Code].

1. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality (with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and John Silvia), Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 88 (June 2017): 70-89. First version: May 2012. [Abstract], [Public Version], [Code and Data], [Media Coverage].

Working Papers

3. Correlation in State and Local Tax Changes (with Scott Baker and Pawel Janas), March 2023. [Abstract], Data:[State Tax Panel], [County Tax Panel], [County Sales Tax Panel].

2. Tax News Shocks and Consumption, August 2018. [Abstract], [Old Slides], [Online Appendix], [NBER executive summary], [Movie].

Note: This video shows the evolution of the path of market-based expected tax rates from the beginning of the Carter administration in January 1977 through the first year of the Reagan administration. With a forecast horizon of 1 to 15 years, the movie shows when markets begin to anticipate the Reagan tax cuts, and how persistent they expect these tax shocks to be. The paths of expected tax rates are calculated from the term structure of yield spreads between Treasury and municipal bonds between 1/1977 and 8/1982. The time series of the actual effective top 1% tax rate (i.e., the perfect foresight tax rate) is based on Saez (2004). [Note: If you cannot see the movie you can download the file here.]

Companion paper to [2]:
2b. The Taxation of Bonds: A Short Primer, October 2011. [Abstract]

1. Sources of Firm Life-Cycle Dynamics: Size vs. Age Effects (with Bryan Hong and Mu-Jeung Yang), January 2017. [Abstract].

Work in Progress

- Renting Hedges Wage Risk (with Lee Lockwood, Pinchuan Ong, and Scott Baker).

- Undiversified Real Estate Investors and Endogenous House Prices (with Charles Nathanson)

Other Writings

- The Note Issue Paradox: Free Banking in Switzerland 1872-1881, March 2007. (This was my 1st-year economic history paper in graduate school. Brad DeLong thought it was worth publishing so I am making it public here.)

- The Impact of Immigration on Swiss Wages: A Fixed Effects Two Stage Least Squares Analysis, February 2005. (This was a term paper in my last year of undergraduate studies. It still gets some citations so I am posting it here for reference.)

- Evaluation wirtschaftspolitischer Programme: Methodische Grundlagen und deren Illustration am Beispiel der kantonalen Wirtschaftsförderung, May 2005. (English title: Evaluation of Regional Economic Promotion Policies; this was my Master's thesis.)


- Discussion of Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Alexander Schandlbauer, and Charline Uhr, "How Do Retail Investors Respond to the Zero Lower Bound," Annual Meeting of the Swiss Society for Financial Market Research (SGF Conference), Zurich Switzerland, April 2022.

- Discussion of Nicole Branger, Linda Larsen, and Claus Munk, "Hedging Recessions," Midwest Finance Association (MFA) Annual Meeting, Chicago IL, March 2019.

- Discussion of Michael Gelman, "The Self-Constrained Hand-to-Mouth," American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Atlanta GA, January 2019.

- Discussion of Jeehoon Han, Bruce Meyer, and James Sullivan, "Inequality in the Joint Distribution of Consumption and Time Use," National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), London UK, June 2018.

- Discussion of Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu, "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia PA, January 2018.

- Discussion of Deniz Aydin, "The Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Credit: Evidence from Random Assignment of 54,522 Credit Lines," The Society for Financial Studies (SFS) Finance Cavalcade Conference, Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN, May 2017.

- Discussion of Tania Babina, Chotibhak Jotikasthira, Christian Lundblad and Tarun Ramadorai, "Heterogenous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds," American Finance Association (AFA) Annual Meeting, San Francisco CA, January 2016.

- Discussion of Karel Mertens, "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," CIREQ Macroeconomics Conference, Montreal Canada, April 2014.

Interviews and Media Posts

- An Open Letter from Some Swiss-Based Academic Economists to the Federal Government: Saving the Economy Requires Controlling the Pandemic, November 2, 2020. [Deutsch, Français, Italiano]
[Sources: Growing list of scientific evidence used in our economic analysis], [Media Coverage].

- The Economics of COVID-19: Evidence-Based Answers to Frequently Asked Questions & Comments (FAQ), November, 2020. [Deutsch, Français, Italiano]
[Contact Form].

- Die Angst vor dem Virus lähmt die Wirtschaft, nicht die Massnahmen, @Republik, November 2020.

- Ueli Maurer und die Volkswirtschaft, INFOsperber, November 2020.